Harmonized scenario assumptions

To increase the comparability of the modeling results we aim at harmonizing the general trends in the development of the economy and the energy system: population, economic growth potentials, energy demand and conditions on the world markets for fossil fuels. The idea is to calibrate baseline developments (GDP and energy demand) to the following scenario description.

Scenario drivers

Harmonized scenario drivers1
2010 2020 2035 20502 Reference
Population (million) 7.79 8.68 9.80 10.30 BFS Scenario A-00-2015
Working population (million full time equivalents) 3.853 4.31 4.58 4.63 BFS Scenario A-00-2015
Crude oil price ($2010/barrel)4 78 105 120 129 2010 value: 2011 IEA World Energy Outlook

Projections: 4DS scenario in 2015 IEA Energy technology Perspectives
Gas price ($2010/MBtu) 7.5 10.4 11.7 12.4
EU electricity price (Euro2013/MWh) 133 150 160 159 EU Reference Scenario 2016: EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions - Trends to 2050
Cooling degree day5 120 235 280 "Klima Wärmer" scenario in BFE 2050 Energy Perspectives, pp. 80-81
Heating degree day5 3586 3002* 2831**

1 Variables for periods between those indicated can be derived by linear interpolation
2 Models that include time periods beyond 2050 will make individual developments beyond 2050 consistent with trends up to 2050.
3 2009 value
4 Crude oil projections do not reflect current low market prices. Our projections assume that the latter are an anomaly that will be corrected in the long run.
5 Assuming: (1) 2035: A temperature increase in the winter months September-May of 1℃ and in the summer months June-August of 2℃; (2) 2050: A temperature increase in the winter months October-April of 1.5℃, in the summer months June-August of 2.5C, and in May and September of 2℃
* 12% increase from the 1984-2002 average ** 17% increase from the 1984-2002 average

Business as usual (BAU) scenario

The BAU scenario is calibrated to the harmonized scenario drivers and the following GDP and demands:

Harmonized drivers in the BAU scenario1
2010 2015 2020 2035 20502 Reference
GDP potential3 (relative to 2010) Ref 1 1.046 1.18 1.43 1.66 Calibration years: BFS, Gross domestic product: expenditure approach, Table 3b
Projections from: SECO 2015
High 1 1.046 1.23 1.58 1.86 SimLab
Energy demand (relative to 2010) Ref 1 0.92 0.937 0.839 0.782 BAU (WWB) scenario from BFE 2050 Energy Perspectives (p. 96)
High 1 0.92 0.969 0.894 0.856 SimLab
Electricity demand (relative to 2010) Ref 1 0.996 1.05 1.097 1.175 BAU (WWB) scenario from BFE 2050 Energy Perspectives (p. 96)
High 1 0.996 1.08 1.17 1.25 SimLab
Fossil energy demand by ETS sectors (relative to 2010) Ref 1 0.876* 0.858 0.621 0.388 Simlab
High 1 0.876* 0.861 0.626 0.395 Simlab


In the policy dimension, BAU scenarios should be calibrated to following existing policies:

Harmonized policies in the BAU scenario1
2010 2015 2020 2035 20502 Reference
CO2 tax on thermal fuels (CHF/tCO2) 36 60 120 120 120 CO2 Ordinance, Chapter 8: CO2 Levy
CO2 tax on motor fuels (CHF/tCO2) 0 CO2 Ordinance
Permit price in Swiss ETS (2010 USD/tCO2) N/A Free**
Cap in emissions of Swiss ETS relative to 2013 levels N/A 0.966 0.884 0.680 0.522 The cap is computed using a yearly reduction factor of 1.74% used in the EU ETS until 2020

1 Variables for periods between those indicated can be derived by linear interpolation
2 Models that include time periods beyond 2050 will make individual developments beyond 2050 consistent with trends up to 2050.
3 Models shall make individual assumptions about labor productivity that are in line with the GDP projections given by SEMP.
* Simlab estimate
** In BAU, the Swiss ETS is active but not coupled with the EU ETS. With trends in fossil fuel demand by ETS sectors described in Table Harmonized drivers in the BAU scenario, the cap of the CH ETS will be overshot. In order to limit emissions to the CH ETS cap, assume that emissions implied by demand trends in Table Harmonized drivers in the BAU scenario are achieved at permit prices according to Table EU ETS permit price and endogenously determine the Swiss ETS permit price by applying the cap in the fourth row of this table.

Technologies

Harmonized technology assumptions
Technology Assumption
Nuclear Nuclear power plants are phased out by 2034 according to expectations about the live span of the power plants currently in operation
CCS No CCS until 2030. After 2030, models may make their own assumptions about CCS and report them.

Renewable resources

We analyze two cases: a default case where the modeling teams use their usual assumptions and a low case with limited potentials of renewables:

Harmonized assumptions on renewable resources
Scenario Renewable 2010 2020 2035 2050
Default All renewables Free choice
Low Wind (TWh) 0.0366 0.3 1 2
Solar (TWh) 0.0936 1.5 2 5
Biomass (TWh) 0.18 1.3 2.5 2.5
Biomass (percent of fuel mix in total primary energy) 0 10 10 10
Geothermal (TWh) 0 0 0 0

Other assumptions

For all the other modelling assumptions (elasticities of substitution, technology characteristics, etc.) each participating model uses its own data.


Currency

The currency of the 1st SEMP is CHF2010.

Currency
Dollars The 2010 exchange rate between USD and CHF was approximately 1 and shall be assumed to remain constant
Euros The exchange rate between CHF and EUR was approx. 0.75 in 2010 and 0.93 in 2015 and shall be assumed to remain constant after that
Deflator Consumer prices index (the difference between the CPI and the GDP deflator is less than 0.75%).
Taken from the Swiss Statistics, CHF2010 = 100:

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
99.807 99.327 100 100.192 99.519 99.326 99.326 98.171
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